CAEP - Forecast and Economic Analysis Support Group (FESG)
Description:
The main role of the Forecast and Economic Analysis Support Group (FESG) is to assess the economic reasonableness of environmental policy options considered/analyzed by CAEP. To this end, it develops forecasts for areas unique to environmental analyses, particularly the global aircraft fleet, including business jets. This information is combined with inputs on technology from other CAEP working groups to form the basis for noise and emissions modelling by MDG. The results allow FESG to perform economic analyses and studies of proposed aviation environmental Standards and the cost-effectiveness of proposed measures. The FESG’s work is carried out through the use of economic models and related databases.
Current work:
The FESG work programme for the CAEP/14 cycle (2025-2028) includes various topics such as:
- Forecast: Develop a new CAEP forecast in support to the CAEP/14 analyses (e.g., passenger aircraft) using as an input the long-term (passenger and cargo) traffic forecasts developed by the ICAO Aviation Data and Analysis Panel (ADAP).
- Economic models: review economic models as needed for the CAEP/14 analyses. A review of the underlying economic cost assumptions used in the fleet evolution modelling tools is needed. These include crew, maintenance, route, capital, and landing costs, all of which will need to be re-estimated and updated in concert with the development of a new fleet forecast.
NOx Stringency Analysis: conduct a NOx Stringency Analysis with other CAEP working groups, adhering to the outcome being more stringent regulatory levels of aircraft engine NOx emissions.
FESG work propremme (complementary information):
- Presentation: Long-Term Traffic Demand Forecasts (version 2025)
Main publications (Reference publications):
42nd Sessions of ICAO Assembly – Working Paper: Consolidated statement of continuing ICAO policies and practices related to environmental protection (General Provisions, Noise and Local Air Quality).
Additional references:
- Article: Environmental Trends in Aviation to 2070. ICAO Environmental Report 2025.
- Article: ICAO’s work on NOx emissions regulation. ICAO Environmental Report 2025.
- Website: ICAO Environmental Trends
- Website: ICAO Models and Databases
Website: ICAO ADAP (Economic Analyses and Forecasting)