SAF Stocktaking - What is it about?

 

 

In March 2018, the ICAO Council endorsed the 2050 ICAO Vision for Sustainable Aviation Fuels. This vision is a living inspirational path and calls on States, industry and other stakeholders, for a significant proportion of aviation fuels to be substituted with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) by 2050.


The Vision is an outcome of the second ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/2). The Conference noted that this path would be based on the assumptions of a progressive increased use of sustainable aviation fuel, and should be periodically reviewed through a stocktaking process to continuously assess progress on SAF development and deployment.

 

As a result, ICAO is pursuing the Stocktaking Process as a means to "take stock" of global progress on the development and deployment of SAF.  Building upon the success of the First ICAO Stocktaking Seminar toward the 2050 Vision for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFS2019), the scope of the Stocktaking process has been expanded to encompass other possibilities for in-sector aviation CO2 reductions (including technology and operations).


As part of the Stocktaking Process, ICAO is constantly updating SAF production estimates with the use of:

  • information provided by States and International Organizations at the Stocktaking Seminars

The current Stocktaking Questionnaire can be found here: ICAO Stocktaking 2020 Questionnaire

·ICAO welcomes the provision of additional information to be considered in the stocktaking process (officeenv@icao.int).

ICAO Stocktaking Seminars


Stocktaking results (as of 27 July 2020)

Historical production

Figure 1 shows that commercial production of SAF increased from an average of 0.29 million litres per year (2013-2015) to 6.45 million litres per year (2016-2018).

 

 SAF_Historic.png

 Figure 1: Historical production of SAF

 

Future production capacity

Figure 2 shows that up to 10.9 Mt (13.6 billion litres) per year of SAF production capacity may be available by 2032. However, there is significant uncertainty on the share of this capacity that will be directed to SAF compared to other fuels. The deployment scenarios shown in Figure 2 ("high ratio" and "low ratio") intend to highlight that uncertainty.


In this regard, the second ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/2) in October 2017 encouraged States to promote policies that strive to establish a level playing field between aviation and other transportation sectors on the use of sustainable fuels.

 

 SAF_Capacity.png

 

 Figure 2: Projected scenarios of SAF production 


Sources:


ProducerSummarySource
PREEMNew facility in Gothemburg, Sweden, to produce  264 MGAL of fuel per year, enter in service in 2024.https://bioenergyinternational.com/biofuels-oils/preem-begins-permitting-process-for-increased-renewable-refining-capacity

https://news.cision.com/preem-ab/r/new-facility-will-provide-a-million-cubic-meters-of-renewable-energy,c2689931
TOTALFacility in La Mede, France, capacity of 165 MGAL/year , from 2020.https://www.total.com/en/energy-expertise/projects/bioenergies/la-mede-a-forward-looking-facility
ECBFacility in Paraguay, 252.95 MGAL/year capacity, full production to start in 2022.http://biodieselmagazine.com/articles/2516596/brazilundefineds-ecb-group-to-build-renewable-diesel-complex-in-paraguay
HollyfrontierArtesia, New Mexico refinery, 125 MGAL/year starting at 1Q/2022 (full capacity in 2023 only)https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/12/20191209-hollyf.html
ST1 OyFacility in Gothemburg, Sweden, capacity of 66 MGAL/year, starting at 2022https://bioenergyinternational.com/biofuels-oils/st1-to-invest-eur-200-million-in-new-biorefinery-to-produce-renewable-diesel-and-jet-fuel
Diamond GreenFacility in Norco, Louisiana. Already operational with  275 MGPY stated production capacity. Planned capacity of 675 MGPY by 2022.https://www.diamondgreendiesel.com/
REGFacility in Geismar, United States. Already operation with 75 MGPY capacity.https://www.regi.com/find-fuel/production-facilities/geismar 
MarathonFacility in Dickinson, United States. Capacity of 184 MGPY, entering in service in 2021.https://www.marathonpetroleum.com/Operations/Refining/Dickinson-Refinery/
World EnergyFacility in Los Angeles, United States. Already operational with 38 MGAL/year, expected expansion to 306 MGPY by 2021https://www.iata.org/contentassets/8dc7f9f4c38247ae8f007998295a37d5/safs2019-day1.pdf
FulcrumFacility in Sierra Nevada, United States, with 10.5 MGPY capacity  up of production up to the 300 MGPY number which is also publically available.
Starting witih the 10.5 MGPY Sierra nevada facility entering service in 2020 (publically-available information). 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fulcrum-bioenergy-breaks-ground-on-sierra-biofuels-plant-300649908.html
https://www.greenaironline.com/news.php?viewStory=2486
GevoFacilities in Luverno and Silsbee. 2020 capacity of 50kGPY, ramping up to 50 MGPY in 2024 and 100 MGPY in 2029https://investors.gevo.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf
LanzatechFreedom Pines - existing facility with 10MGPY capacity. Three other facilities coming online by 2022 (30 MGPY each)https://www.icao.int/Meetings/SAFStocktaking/Documents/ICAO%20SAF%20Stocktaking%202019%20-%20AI3-1%20Laurel%20Harmon.pdf
RedRockLakeview Facility, 15.1 MGAL/year capacity by 2020https://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2018/07/29/red-rock-biofuels-facility-breaks-ground-in-lakeview/
UPMKotka Facility, with 165 MGPY capacity from 2024.https://www.pulpapernews.com/20190803/9850/upm-completes-eia-its-possible-kotka-biorefinery-finland
https://www.upmbiofuels.com/about-upm-biofuels/
VelocysVelocys facility in Mississippi, with 20MGPY capacityInformation received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
LTU GreenfuelsFacility in Piteå, Sweden. Retrofitting of LTU Green Fuels 3 MW gasiifier with av Fischer Tropsch and upgrading unit.https://www.icao.int/Meetings/SAFStocktaking/Documents/ICAO%20SAF%20Stocktaking%202019%20-%20AI1-4%20Jannike%20Ludvigsson.pdf
CapheniaReTURN project (Recycling of organic residues and CO2 to fuels) . 300.000 liters of SAF production expected in 2024. Information received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
NesteFacility in Porvoo, Finland - 31 MGAL/year from 2019 Information received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
NesteFacility in Singapore, 317 MGPY capacity. (1.2 billion liters) from 2022Information received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
NesteFacility in Rotterdam, 145.3 MGPY from 2023Information received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
LanzatechFacility in Port Talbot, UK, 26.4 MGAL/year (100 million liters), from 2021 onwards. Project "  Future Fuels for Flight and Freight Competition" , funded by the UK Department for Transportation. Information received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
velocysBritish Airways AltAlto project. Immingham Facility, $400 million investment, 13.2 MGAL/year from 2025 (50 ML/y)Information received at the ICAO Stocktaking 2020
SAF plus consortiumSAF Plus consortium, targeted to produce 7.9 MGPY from 2025 in MontrealInformation received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
Flexjet project130.000 Hectares of macauba reforestation, 5.3MGPY (20 ML/y) SAF from 2025. Www.flexjetproject.euInformation received at the SAF Stocktaking 2020
Hollyfrontierconversion of refinery to renewable diesel production. To be completed 1st quarter 2022. Capacity 90 MGPY renewable dieselhttps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200601005487/en/HollyFrontier-Announces-Expansion-Renewables-Business
ARA Licensee 1ARA licensee, capacity of 2,650 BPD by 2022 (40.62 MGPY)ICAO Stocktaking 2020 Presentation by ARA
ARA Licensee 2ARA licensee, capacity of 3,000 BPD by 2022 (46 MGPY)ICAO Stocktaking 2020 Presentation by ARA
ARA Licensee 3ARA licensee, capacity of 5,300 BPD by 2022 (81.25 MGPY)ICAO Stocktaking 2020 Presentation by ARA
Refuel YYZ18 ML/year starting in 2023, ramping up t 36 ML/year in 2024ICAO Stocktaking 2020 Questionnaire




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