SAF rules of thumb

As part of work on SAF projections, CAEP experts from Washington State University, supported by experts from Hasselt University developed a set of heuristics or "Rules of Thumb" for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that could be utilized to make order of magnitude estimations related to SAF costs, investment needs and production potential that could inform policymakers and project developers.


All of the information was calculated using U.S. costs and financial assumptions.  The values will change based on regional variables. No incentives were included in the MSP values calculated. Contact ICAO to provide information that could be used to update the Rules of Thumb.

 

Four SAF manufacturing technologies were assessed: Gasification Fischer-Tropsch (GFT), alcohol to jet (ATJ), hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), and pyrolysis. For each of the technologies, multiple feedstocks and two levels of technology maturity were assessed: nth plant and pioneer plant.

 

The Rules of Thumb provide the impact of feedstock cost, fuel yield, facility scale (total distillate and SAF), total capital investment (TCI) and minimum selling price (MSP) for nth plant and pioneer facility scales.

 

DISCLAIMER:

These SAF "Rules of Thumb" are intended to provide big picture trends for costs and processing technology/feedstock comparisons and could be utilized to make order of magnitude estimations. They do not provide precise cost or price information.  As such, investment or policy decisions should be based on a dedicated analysis that captures specific details related to the investment or policy.


All of the information was calculated using U.S. costs and financial assumptions.  The values will change based on regional variables. No incentives were included in the MSP values calculated.

 

The summary tables 1 an 2 below provide the most likely costs and facility scales based on the Techno Economic Assessment (TEA) models, existing literature values and expert opinion. Summary Table 3 provides estimates on CO2 abatement costs, obtained with the use of MSP information and the life cycle emission reductions associated with each fuel.


All of the TEA models are based on open-source information; costs that use proprietary technology may differ significantly.


Summary Table 1 - Feedstock Information

Technology, feedstock type and price, yield, total annual distillate scale, annual SAF production for both nth and pioneer facilities.

Processing Technology ​
Feedstock ​Yield
(ton distillate/ton feedstock) ​
Feedstock Price ​Total Capacity (million L/year)
SAF production        (million L/year) ​
nthpioneernthpioneer
FT*
MSW0.31
$30/ton
50010020040
FT*
forest residues0.18$125/ton
40010016040
FT*
agricultural residues0.14$110/ton
30010012040
ATJ
ethanol0.60$0.41/L100010070070
ATJ
isobutanol-low0.75$0.89/L100010070070
ATJ
isobutanol-high0.75$1.20/L100010070070
HEFA
FOGs0.83$580/ton
1000-550-
HEFA
soybean oil***0.83$809/ton
1000-550-
FT

CO2 from Direct Air Capture (DAC) , H2

0.24$300/t, $6/kg1000-200-
FT
waste CO2, H20.24$300/t, $6/kg1000-200-
Pyrolysis**forest residues0.23$125/ton
40010018040
Pyrolysis**agricultural residues0.21$110/ton
40010018040

*feedstock price is for pre-processed feedstock

**pyrolysis ASTM approval is pending.

***2013-2019 average price of soybean and canola oils,


Summary Table 2 - SAF facilities information

Total capital investment (TCI), capital cost, and minimum selling price (MSP) for nth and pioneer facilities for each pathway.

Processing Technology ​Feedstock ​TCI (million $)
Capital Cost            ($/L total distillate) ​MSP ($/L)
nthpioneer
nthpioneernthpioneer
FT*MSW1428813
2.98.10.92.1
FT*
forest residues16181088
4.010.91.73.3
FT*
agricultural residues
150912675.012.72.03.8
ATJ
ethanol**3281170.31.20.91.1
ATJ
ethanol, agricultural residues5811700.61.72.22.5
ATJ
isobutanol-low**332940.30.91.31.5
ATJ
isobutanol-high**4101100.41.11.71.9
HEFA
FOGs448-0.4-0.8-
HEFA
vegetable oil456-0.5-1.0-
FT
DAC CO2, H23366-3.4-4.4-
FT
waste CO2, H23209-3.2-3.5-
Pyrolysis***forest residues10385942.65.91.32.1
Pyrolysis***agricultural residues10846192.76.21.32.2

*feedstock price is for pre-processed feedstock,

**alcohol feedstock is corn-based,

***pyrolysis ASTM approval is pending.

 

Summary Table 3 - CO2 abatement costs

 CO2 Abatement costs for nth and pioneer facilities for each pathway (compared with the CORSIA baseline of 89 gCO2e/MJ).

Processing Technology ​
Feedstock
Life cycle emissions  (gCO2e/MJ)*
Abatement Cost ($/tCO2e)
nthpioneer
FTMSW
32.5*
210840
FT
forest residues8.3*
420990
FTagricultural residue7.7*
5201170
ATJcorn ethanol
90.8 *, **
no CO2 abatement

no CO2 abatement

ATJagricultural residues ethanol, stand alone39.7*
10201190
ATJagricultural residues ethanol, integrated24.6*
780910
ATJisobutanol - low, corn77.9*, **
21002510
ATJisobutanol - high, corn77.9*,**
32203680
ATJisobutanol - low, sugarcane33.1*,**
420500
ATJisobutanol - high, sugarcane33.1*,**
640730
HEFAFOGs18.2*
130-
HEFAsoybean oil64.9*
640-
HEFAbrassica carinata13.0*
160-
FTDAC CO2, green H2, wind electricity7 ***
1390-
FTDAC CO2, green H2, solar electricity25 ***
1780-
FTDAC CO2, green H2, grid electricity279 ***

no CO2 abatement

-
FTwaste CO2, green H2, wind electricity31 ***
1510-
FTwaste CO2, green H2, solar electricity49 ***
2190-
Pyrolysis****
forest residues25.7 ***
370750
Pyrolysis****
agricultural residue0.2 ***
270550

* based on default life cycle emissions provided in the ICAO document "CORSIA Default Life Cycle Emissions Values for CORSIA Eligible Fuels".

** Includes ILUC values, which can be subtracted with the use of low LUC risk practices as defined in the ICAO document "CORSIA Methodology for Calculating Actual Life Cycle Emissions Values".

*** life cycle emissions obtained from external references; not CORSIA.

****pyrolysis ASTM approval is pending.

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