CAEP Forecast and Economic Analysis Support Group


The main role of the Forecast and Economic Analysis Support Group (FESG) is to assess the economic reasonableness of environmental policy options considered/analyzed by CAEP. To this end, it develops forecasts for those areas that are unique to environmental analyses, in particular the world aircraft fleet, including business jets. This information is combined with inputs on technology from other CAEP working groups to form the basis for noise and emissions modelling by MDG. The results allow FESG to perform economic analyses and studies of proposed aviation environmental Standards and cost-effectiveness of proposed measures. The group's work is carried out through the use of economic models and related databases.

Current work:

The FESG work programme for the CAEP/12 cycle (2019-2022) includes various topics such as:

  • Supersonics – contribute to an exploratory study to provide CAEP with a better understanding of airport noise impacts resulting from the introduction of supersonic aircraft.
  • Forecast – develop a new CAEP forecast in support to the CAEP/12 analyses (e.g. passenger and freighter fleet forecasts, retirement curves, and supersonics) using as an input the long-term passenger and cargo traffic forecasts developed by the ICAO Aviation Data and Analysis Panel (ADAP).
  • Economic models – review of economic models for the future analyses; this includes analysis of underlying economic cost assumptions used in the fleet evolution modelling tools, and of data and methodologies used to assess manufacturer and airline costs.
  • Airport capacity constraints – assess a proposed methodology to evaluate airport capacity constraints  and  its effects on global air traffic, fleets and emissions.

Main publications (Reference publications):

  • Traffic & Fleet Forecast for CAEP/4, CAEP/5, CAEP/6, CAEP/8, CAEP/9, CAEP/10 and CAEP/11.
  • Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, IPCC Special Report, 1999 (Chapter 9: Aircraft Emissions: Current Inventories and Future Scenarios)
  • Analysis of Voluntary Agreements and Open Emission Trading systems for the limitation of CO2 emissions from aviation with the AERO modelling system (CAEP/6)
  • Analysis of open emission trading systems for the limitation of CO2 emissions from aviation with the AERO modelling system (CAEP/6)
  • Cost-effectiveness analysis of Noise, NOx, nvPM and CO2 standards
  • Cost-effectiveness analysis of aircraft noise and emissions charges (CAEP/7)

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