SAF Projections

The ICAO CAEP has been regularly developing SAF production projections, based on publicly available  announcements from companies.

Latest Update - The most recent update was developed in 2024, and presented to the ICAO A42 Assembly in A42-WP/28

2011 Projections - During its CAEP/12 cycle (2019-2022), the ICAO CAEP developed SAF production projections in the short-term (out to 2025), and in the long term (2035 and 2050), in support of the assessment on the feasibility of a long-term aspirational goal for international aviation (LTAG). 

2022 Projections - in 2022, these short-term projections have been updated and extended to 2030. From 2024 to 2027, the projections are based on 108 publicly-available production announcements from companies planning to produce alternative fuels. A forecasting approach was used to estimate the potential SAF production for years 2028, 2029, and 2030 due to the scarcity of additional announcements for those years. The results and methodology used on this analysis are available here.