SAF Rules of Thumb

This website provides  a set of heuristics or "Rules of Thumb" for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that could be utilized to make order of magnitude estimations related to SAF costs, investment needs and production potential, and inform policymakers and project developers.

The Rules of Thumb provide the impact of feedstock cost, fuel yield, facility scale (total distillate and SAF), total capital investment (TCI) and minimum selling price (MSP) for nth plant and pioneer facility scales. 

All of the information was calculated using U.S. costs and financial assumptions.  The values will change based on regional variables. No incentives were included in the MSP values calculated. officeenv [at] icao.int (Contact ICAO) to provide information that could be used to update the Rules of Thumb.
 

The summary tables 1 and 2 below provide the most likely costs and facility scales based on the Techno Economic Assessment (TEA) models, existing literature values and expert opinion. Summary Table 3 provides estimates on CO2 abatement costs, obtained with the use of MSP information and the life cycle emission reductions associated with each fuel.

All of the TEA models are based on open-source information; costs that use proprietary technology may differ significantly.

Summary Table 1 - Feedstock Information

Technology, feedstock type and price, yield, total annual distillate scale, annual SAF production for both n^th and pioneer facilities.

¹feedstock price is for pre-processed feedstock, 

²alcohol feedstock is corn-based 

Summary Table 2 - SAF facilities information

Total capital investment (TCI), capital cost, and minimum selling price (MSP) for n^th and pioneer facilities for each pathway.

¹feedstock is for pre-processed before arriving at biorefinery, 

²alcohol feedstock is corn-based

Summary Table 3 - CO₂ abatement costs

 CO₂ Abatement costs for n^th and pioneer facilities for each pathway (compared with the CORSIA baseline of 89 gCO₂e/MJ).