Forecasting - Guidance Material and Workshops

Guidance Material

​​ICAO's forecasting information service is accompanied by guidance material and group training activities at the regional level. Methodologies for forecasting and economic planning were developed and the latest edition of the Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting (Doc 8991-AT/722) was issued in 2006. Click for a preview (pdf) of the Introduction and Table of Contents.
This manual is addressed to civil aviation administration personnel, airline planners, planners of airports and air navigation systems and others actively engaged in practical forecasting work. It provides a survey of techniques currently used for air traffic forecasting and practical guidance on the application of these techniques. The advantages and disadvantages of the techniques as well as the criteria for selection of a particular technique for the forecast concerned are discussed.

Doc 8991

Long-Term Air Traffic Forecasts Model

The ICAO Long-Term Forecasts have been developed by the Aviation Data and Analysis Panel and follow this methodological document.


Training in this field is provided to personnel of Civil Aviation Authorities (or equivalent bodies) of ICAO Contracting States through participation in ICAO Traffic Forecasting and Economic Planning Workshops which are periodically conducted at the regional level. The workshop participants study forecasting methodology and other economic evaluation techniques and their applications for planning purposes of airlines, such as traffic and fleet planning; capacity planning of airports with respect to passenger, freight and aircraft movements; air navigation systems and services, including cost/benefit analysis for the implementation of communications, navigation and surveillance/air traffic management (CNS/ATM) systems. The air transport potential and outlook for the particular region and an exchange of views about related economic planning issues conclude such group training sessions.

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