In light of the rapidly spreading disease named as COVID-19, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) actively monitors its economic impacts on civil aviation and regularly publishes updated reports and adjusted forecasts. The latest version can be viewed here and all full reports are available further below.
ICAO has also worked alongside the DGCA of Turkey to develop interactive dashboards to monitor four key aspects of the impact of COVID-19 on civil aviation - operational impacts, economic impacts, aircraft utilizations and impacts on country-pair traffic.
When assessing the economic impacts on civil aviation, ICAO works with many different scenarios in order to reflect the very uncertain nature of the current situation and the rapidly changing environment. In order to explore the potential economic implication of the COVID-19 pandemic for the near future, the full report is built around 4 different recovery paths under two indicative scenarios. The actual path will eventually depend upon various factors, inter alia, duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, availability of government assistance, consumers' confidence and economic conditions.
Compared to last week’s estimates, international estimates were continuously under cloudy sky while domestic estimates went up in some regions. Consequently, overall estimates towards the end of this year were changed by 4 to 7% (scenario 1) and 1% (scenario 2).
Aviation provides the only rapid worldwide transportation network, which makes it essential for global business. It generates economic growth, creates jobs, and facilitates international trade and tourism.
Source: Aviation Benefits Report, 2019
Both air passenger traffic and air freight traffic are expected to more than double in the next two decades. Forecasts indicate that in 2036, aviation will provide 98 million jobs and generate USD 5.7 trillion in GDP - i.e. a 110% increase from 2016.