In light of the rapidly spreading disease named as COVID-19, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) actively monitors its economic impacts on civil aviation and regularly publishes updated reports and adjusted forecasts. The latest version can be viewed here and all full reports are available further below.
The analytical timeframe has now been extended to Dec 2021 and therefore covers the full year of 2021.
ICAO has also worked alongside the DGCA of Turkey to develop interactive dashboards to monitor four key aspects of the impact of COVID-19 on civil aviation - operational impacts, economic impacts, aircraft utilizations and impacts on country-pair traffic.
September results finalized; preliminary October results;
Stronger-than-expected recovery of domestic traffic in October; continued small dip in international traffic;
Slightly improved short-term outlook for 2021 with airline revenue losses estimated slightly lower compared to last week
Europe: upward revision
North America domestic: possible soft patch until autumn
Asia/Pacific international: grim near-term outlook
Compared to last week’s estimates, international estimates were continuously under cloudy sky while domestic estimates went up in some regions. Consequently, overall estimates towards the end of this year were changed by 4 to 7% (scenario 1) and 1% (scenario 2).
Aviation provides the only rapid worldwide transportation network, which makes it essential for global business. It generates economic growth, creates jobs, and facilitates international trade and tourism.
Source: Aviation Benefits Report, 2019
Both air passenger traffic and air freight traffic are expected to more than double in the next two decades. Forecasts indicate that in 2036, aviation will provide 98 million jobs and generate USD 5.7 trillion in GDP - i.e. a 110% increase from 2016.