Forecasts of Scheduled Passenger and Freight Traffic

ICAO's forecasting activities include preparing forecasts of air transport developments, passenger/freight traffic flows and aircraft movements on a worldwide, regional and route group basis, including analysis of the economic and other factors underlying these trends.  

 

Medium-term forecasts 

The medium-term forecasts are prepared and released on an annual basis. The latest set of these forecasts for the years 2014 to 2016 are available on the ICAO website. 
 
 

Global and region-by-region (Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia and Pacific, North America, Latin America and

the Caribbean) analyses of trends in airline traffic along with factors underlying air traffic demand over the 1992-2012 period were prepared. Click here to view medium-term traffic forecasts measured in terms of Passenger-Kilometres Performed (PKP) and Freight Tonne-Kilometres Performed (FTK).


 

Long-term forecasts 

The long-term forecasts are prepared for passenger/freight traffic, aircraft movements, and related parameters, supporting planning purposes of airlines, airports, air navigation systems and others. These global and regional forecasts have a twenty-year horizon and are issued biennially or triennially.

 

According to the latest ICAO's forecasts (using 2015 baseline), global passenger traffic will grow at 4.3 per cent annually from 2015 to 2035. All route groups involving Central Southwest Asia are among the Top 10 fastest growing ones, and Central South West Asia – North Asia is estimated to have the highest growth rate at 7.2 per cent annually up to 2035. Route groups in and between Africa, Central America/Caribbean and the Middle East are expected to grow around the global pace. Lower growth rates are estimated for route groups in and between mature markets, including Europe, North America, and North Asia.

 

Global freight traffic is expected to grow at 3.9 per cent annually from 2015 to 2035. Two regions, the Middle East and Asia/Pacific, will exceed the global growth, with the former having the highest annual growth outpacing global estimate by about 1.9 percentage points. This is followed by Africa which is estimated to grow at an almost similar pace to the global estimate. North America and Europe will grow at a slightly slower pace than the global estimate while Latin America/Caribbean has the lowest annual growth rate of less than 2 per cent.

 

Tables of the traffic forecasts are available at this link: Long Term Forecasts Tables

 

The updated traffic forecasts have been integrated into a newly-developed electronic interface, allowing States and other users to generate customized forecasts at different levels of granularity (for example, by route, country-pair, city-pair, and country of departure). For more information, contact ecd@icao.int

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