Forecasts of Scheduled Passenger Traffic

 

 

World economic growth (GDP) is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 per cent in real terms for the period 2005-2025. Airline yields on average are expected to remain stable and to show no change during the forecast horizon.

 

Scheduled traffic on domestic and international flights of airlines worldwide, measured in terms of passenger-kilometres performed (PKPs), is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.6 per cent for the period 2005-2025; somewhat lower than the growth achieved during the past two decades (1985-2005). Total freight traffic, measured in terms of freight tonne-kilometres, is forecast to grow at 6.6 per cent rate per annum over the same period.

 

International traffic is envisioned to continue growing at a higher rate than total traffic, namely at 5.3 per cent per annum for passenger-kilometres and 6.9 per cent per annum for freight tonne-kilometres.

 

The airlines of the Middle East and Asia/Pacific regions are expected to experience the highest growth in passenger traffic at 5.8 per cent per annum through to the year 2025, followed by the airlines of the African region with a 5.1 per cent annual growth rate. Airline traffic in each of the European and Latin America/Caribbean regions is expected to grow at 4.3 and 4.8 per cent, respectively. In the North American region, airline traffic is expected to increase at 3.6 per cent per annum.

 

For scheduled services, aircraft departures are estimated to increase from some 25 million in 2005 to slightly over 50 million in 2025 and aircraft-kilometres flown from 31 billion to 69 billion over the same period.